Do smoking bans work?

The UK’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill is currently making its way through the House of Commons. It will—if passed—further restrict smoking in outdoor public spaces. Smoking in indoor public spaces has been banned since 2006. The bill also goes a step further, however, prohibiting the sale of tobacco to anyone born after January 2009.

If the bill is passed, it will be one of the strictest anti-smoking regulations in the world—and the first to ban smoking for younger generations. In 2022 New Zealand nearly enacted a similar “generation ban” which would have introduced a steadily rising legal smoking age to stop those born after January 2009 from being able to buy cigarettes legally. New Zealand’s bill was to be implemented from July 2024, but was scrapped in November 2023 after the government which proposed it lost the 2023 national election, and the new coalition government halted proceedings.

New Zealand’s backsliding is rare in a global picture which has seen a domino effect of anti-smoking legislation since 2007, a watershed year when many nations began to bring in indoor smoking bans. France, Portugal, and several Australian states and Canadian provinces have announced or implemented bans on smoking in public outdoor spaces such as beaches, public parks, and cafe and restaurant terraces. In recent years, South America has seen several comprehensive bans on smoking in public places, while governments in Japan and Thailand are two of a growing list of Asian countries instituting indoor smoking bans.

Despite the march of smoking bans, Europe is a surprising bleak spot for smoking prevalence—smoking rates in France in the two decades since 2006 …