Self rated “health score” can predict risk of death in next five years, researchers say

Researchers have developed a score calculated from self reported information that predicts the risk of death within five years for UK people aged between 40 and 70. But some scientists have questioned its practical value and have said that the researchers’ claims that it could be of major benefit to people, influence health policy, and add to clinicians’ knowledge may be overstated.

A Swedish study showing how the score was developed from an analysis of data in the UK Biobank and how people could calculate their own five year death risk online was published in the Lancet on 4 June.1 One of the coauthors, Andrea Ganna, a research fellow at Stockholm’s Karolinska Institute, said that enabling people to estimate their personalised risk without any need for laboratory tests or physical examinations was an “exciting development.”

He and Erik Ingelsson, a professor of molecular epidemiology at Uppsala University, analysed UK Biobank data collected …